A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
